A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that divided the country and triggered turmoil, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where those defeated are resistant to losing and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in academia but hardly any government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer endorses unification or the status quo. Each authors two essays that seek objectivity in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and societal figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates encompass identity markers, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the concept that there could be valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they support unity but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his era is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate arguments, he stated. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will in the end lose but all factions has got something to learn from the opposing arguments."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
